On Saturday night, Krista organized a house party for Kevin and I to celebrate our marriage and as a send-off for our imminent move to San Francisco. We had a great time catching up with our friends from Vancouver and Victoria and stayed out late. Needless to say, waking up the next morning to the prospect of packing was a struggle.
I rolled over and, as I typically do on Sunday mornings, turned on the radio to listen to the Sunday Edition with Michael Enright. And I did so just in time to hear his views on the H1N1 "outbreak", which align with mine almost completely and so I thought I'd share his essay here:
The Swine Flu vaccine arrived this week. You might have heard. The media jumped all over it, treating it like an airlift of warm blankets and hot food to flood-ravaged lowlands in Manitoba. On Thursday, virtually every CBC newscast led with the vaccine story "How To Get It, where to get it, when to get it, who should get it, how often to get it. By the end of the day, the coverage made me want to run screaming to the nearest flu clinic to beg on hands and knees for the needle for me and mine. I kept waiting for reports of refrigerated flu transports being attacked on expressways by terror stricken parents desperate for the precious vials.
We are in the grip of a pandemic, all right, but it's not flu it's fear. For weeks, months even, we have been force fed by government and health agencies in print and the electronic media that things, Swine-wise, are going to get very, very bad this winter. Some months ago, a panel of distinguished American scientists warned that the so-called Second Wave could cause between 30,000 and 90,000 deaths by mid-October. In other words, now. This was duly reported as a quote plausible scenario. Close Quote. Canadians have been warned that the Swine Flu numbers could be in the tens of thousands. But with the Niagara of conflicting information, the o-again, off-again impending threat, it is difficult for most of us to know what to believe.
For example a television host on a US channel said the Swine Flu virus was and I'm quoting "something we have never seen before in history". He made it sound like some creepy, deadly strain for the planet Zerxes. When in fact H1N1 has been around and mutating since the mid-Seventies. Then there are the numbers. In June, in the US, about 11 weeks into the pandemic, there were 144 deaths. After six months, Swine Flu has killed about as many people as seasonal flu does in six days. In other words, the Swine is less a danger than regular seasonal flu.
Next we were told, that the coming winter was when things would get really, really bad. Winter is just ending in Australian and everybody was wondering how Australians managed the Swine; CBC sent a reporter down under. Turns out, the Aussies survived pretty well. Dr. Brian Goldman hosts the ever excellent CBC Radio show White Coat, Black Art. Last month he hosted a gutsy episode called Swinefeld a flu about nothing. He did the math and pointed out that in Australia there were slightly under 200 deaths from Swine Flu in a country of 22-million. By the way, Goldman thinks that refusing to shake hands or bumping elbows, all that protective nonsense, is about as helpful as hiding under a desk during nuclear attack.
I'm more than a little skeptical about Swine Flu predictions of doom. And for a very good reason. In 1976, I wrote a 3,000 word magazine piece for Maclean's suggesting that that year's H1N1 outbreak could equal the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918. Not a career highlight. The virus never got out of the Fort Dixx compound in New Jersey. About 240 soldiers were infected. But about 500 Americans who were vaccinated came down with a disease called Guillain-Barre Syndrome and 25 of them died.
Journalists who make predictions about impending heath perils or pass on such predictions have to take great care. Remember what we told you about Y2K; airplanes falling from the skies, elevators crashing to earth? Remember what we told you about the Great Bird Flu pandemic of 2005 and all those deaths hat never happened? Sadly there's no vaccine against panic.
Here is the audio file of the entire show for your listening pleasure:
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